Five levee questions — who, what, when, where and how (why is implicit).
Huge decision. Who's that guy at the switch?
Editor’s note: I never took a course in journalism but my understanding is that budding reporters learn to focus on the who, what, when, where and how of important breaking news. This post is on the critical subject of levees with these same basic questions in mind: Who will make levee policy for the state? What is at stake? Where will the levee alignments be drawn? And finally, How is the strategy for keeping New Orleans dry influencing the discussion on flood protection for the remainder of the coast that is still above sea level?
Len’s levee law: A. Levee decisions are extremely consequential, with long lasting legacies, some intended, some not. B. Levees are very expensive to build and maintain – and not just in dollars. C. Levees have benefits and costs, the former often exaggerated and the latter typically underestimated.
A story by Mark Schleifstein in the January 2 Times-Picayune describes the results of a nationwide survey of the economic impacts of levees by LSU grad student Ezra Boyd. The provocative nature of the subject of levees in the NOLA area was exemplified by the fact that within about 24 hours 55 comments had been posted on the story at nola.com, many highly emotional.
According to Schleifstein, the study, commissioned by levees.org, reports that US counties (parishes in Louisiana) with some flood protection levees have higher mean household incomes than counties lacking levees. This statistic is apparently being interpreted very broadly by some levee advocates to justify the high cost of building and maintaining levees – on the basis of net savings from flood events avoided.
Editor’s addendum: Since posting this piece Ezra Boyd contacted me and shared the study so you can read it here.
This begs a fundamental chicken and egg question: Do storm levees attract coastal development or do levees just reflect the economic advantages of living in proximity to the coast? This question has important implications for future levee policy in south Louisiana. With all due respect to Boyd’s study* I’m skeptical about what could be usefully gleaned (from Louisiana’s standpoint) from an analysis of levee cost and performance, based on other (non-subsiding) parts of the country.
Levee disconnect
The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and the state Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration (OCPR) are under intense political pressure** to oversee the implementation of an effective coast-wide program to lower the risk of flooding from hurricane surge. In terms of how best to accomplish this goal, a philosophical disconnect exists between a ‘pro-levee’ camp, advocates of more and bigger levees, and a ‘pro-ecosystem’ camp, whose members advocate a ‘softer’ solution, based on a restored ecosystem, non-structural elements and multiple lines of defense.
Members of the latter camp warn that major new levee systems may be as calming and pleasurable as tobacco in the short term — but as addictive, costly and dangerous in the long run.
My sense is that the policy pendulum has swung far in the direction of the ‘levees on steroids’ camp, i.e., the mainly structural approach to coastal protection currently appears to have the upper hand among policy makers. This opinion is largely based on the fact that prior to Katrina/Rita a comprehensive restoration package was priced at $15 billion but after the storms, when coastal protection was added to restoration, the cost for the total package exploded to $100 billion. Nothing but a massive levee system would explain this $85 billion jump in cost.
Based on discussions at many public meetings, my hunch is that this coast-wide ‘levee-heavy’ bias is consciously or unconsciously premised and rationalized on a kind of politically correct coastal egalitarianism doctrine. The logic is that what’s good for New Orleans should be equally good for all of south Louisiana. If my hypothesis is correct, statewide levee policy discussions are being unduly colored by a place (NOLA) unlike anywhere else in the country, where population density is relatively high, where levees are very old and culturally accepted and where most of the natural ecosystem has long since been displaced and developed.
I don’t think that the New Orleans model is appropriate for other parts of the Louisiana coast. Neither do I think that the New Orleans flood protection system, which is currently being bolstered by the corps (to only a 1% annual chance of failure) at a cost of $15 billion, should be used to justify walling off the rest of south Louisiana.
New Orleans flood protection is not analagous to the protection of Montegut, Cocodrie or Dulac, for example. I think that ring levees, a restored barrier shoreline, mandated structure elevation and the thoughtful and public development of pre-storm evacuation measures would be far more appropriate and cost effective.
The unrealistic costs and questionable benefits of a continuous ‘wall of Louisiana’ following any of the proposed cross-basin levee alignments on the drawing board should be very carefully considered by policy makers. This information can be conveyed by the use of graphics that convey the detailed distribution of population centers against alternative levee alignments and patterns of geographic features. For example, Rich Campanella, geography professor at Tulane, is very talented at summarizing site-specific socioeconomic information, using maps and graphs with great power to reveal patterns that tabular data or words alone could never do. Shirley Laska, social scientist and coastal hazard authority at UNO has expressed interest in collaborating on such an effort.
Rich kindly forwarded the image shown below as an example of a map with existing (not proposed) levee alignments shown, in relation to graphical data on population density.
Graphic provided by Rich Campanella
The New Orleans levee model
If you were raised in New Orleans your personal attitude about levees, like tobacco, was probably influenced by your age, your parents and the neighborhood in which you grew up. Long term New Orleans residents understandably share a practical and emotional attachment to levees that goes back generations.
Keep in mind that New Orleans is a very old, one of a kind city located in a unique and in some ways irrational place. Absent levees and pumps, perhaps 50% of New Orleans would be permanently underwater today. That’s part of the mystery, charm and irrational exuberance of the Big Easy. In what other American city would you commonly see bicycle riders multi-tasking with a beer and a cigarette?
Levee policy
As I write this, the levee alignment decision engine is chugging down a coastal track steadily gathering steam. This levee locomotive is approaching a switch that will irrevocably determine its destination: a massively expensive and destructive levees-only future; or a more sustainable future guided by credible science and not political pressure.
Who will tell the switchman how to throw the lever? What will the decision be? When will it be made (2010)? How will it be justified and paid for?
Under one scenario I can envision Governor Jindal on a conference call in 2011 with his engineer Garret Graves and a CPRA crew. The future of most of south Louisiana would hang on this conversation, analogous to the fateful calls by previous Louisiana governors to the death house at Angola. The call could culminate in an irrevocable decision to ‘go for the (levees) gusto,’ with a river diversion at Myrtle Grove and some smaller projects probably thrown in as a token to the ecosystem camp.
Given the way that bureaucracy works, however, I predict a far less dramatic but equally unfortunate (default) scenario in which hard decisions are kicked down the road through the governor’s second term, while energy costs go up, relative sea level rises, land loss continues – and state and national funding never fully materialize.
Either scenario would result in squandering the opportunity to proceed with a no regrets, realistically modest, multi-pronged effort based on good science.
I would love to see a truly open discussion of all three scenarios but I’m not holding my breath.
Two factors that could result in a pendulum shift toward what I think is the most appropriate scenario would be: (1) sticker shock from extremely expensive cost and maintenance estimates of the levee heavy system; and/or (2) effective action (political pressure) by stakeholders, agencies and ngos at the national level.
Of particular concern to me is that despite Louisiana’s sunshine law the serious decisions tend to unfold in agency meeting rooms not accessible to the public. My experience tells me that the policy will be set by engineers and others not necessarily aware of – and obviously not responsible for – the long term consequences of their discussion.
Len Bahr (len.bahr@gmail.com)
* In fairness to the author haven’t I seen the study yet.
**The US Army Corps of Engineers is also on the line here, in terms of the post-Katrina fallout.
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Hi JanJamm and Sam,
Hi Dr Houck,
can you give us the run-down on the Environmental Law regarding conflicts of Interests (either real or apparent) as regards the crafting of Coastal Restoration and Wetlands Policy with the State of Louisiana going back at least 30 years?
Where do they draw the Line between the differences in Business/Development and Scientific/Academic interests?
Is there a Line, here in Louisiana?
How does this work with regard to Lobbying activities by Industry Interests?
Thank you in advance.
While we are talking, the state and Corps are busy pushing most aggressive and high risk new levee system in the country. Unless that development is checked, the rest of this discussion is idle. Local groups cannot do it on their own. This is where the national groups come in … or do they?
NOTE!!
The following comments are from Bob Bea, highly respected engineering professor and levee authority from UC Berkeley. Professor Bea played a critical role in the forensic study of levee failures in NOLA after Katrina.
Excellent article, Len.
Some thoughts:
1) Len’s levee law – C – costs and benefits. this has been and continues to be a big mess. yes, we typically underestimate costs – particularly when we are trying to ‘sell something’. we really underestimate costs when they are the costs of ‘failure’ – often by factors that exceed 10 to 100. evaluations of benefits have similar challenges. benefits are often expressed as the costs of failure that can be averted – and so are often underestimated. however, when the benefits are used to ‘sell something’ – frequently a commercial venture – then we tend to overestimate them.
2) Levees – attractor or protector? they are both. in their original state, levees are a natural protective feature formed by sediment and water – they show up as river and stream levees – also as coastal barrier beaches. if we listen to history, it has clearly tried to teach the lesson – do not develop for permanent functions what you can not adequately protect for the long term haul. we really learned this lesson during the summer of 2008 when we investigated the mid-west levee failures and flooding. Productive farmland was covered with sand – and that sand came from the levees we constructed to protect the farmland. Does that mean quit farming? No. it means farm this rich bottom land in a way that cooperates with the natural environment. it means build high and strong. it means give water the room it needs.
3) Which – levees or coastal restoration and protection? answer: both. not one or the other but both working in harmony. after our trail of tears experience in investigating the failures of the flood defense system during Hurricane Katrina, we worked hard to understand how to go forward. we tried a levees first approach. would not work for several reasons including cost, negative impacts, and lack of sustainability. we tried a nature first approach – as you and others have put it – a multiple lines of defense. that was the only approach we could find to be workable for the long term. and, yes, we could not identify a ‘one size fits all’ formulation of this approach that would work for all areas. some areas would not be well served with any levees – they needed to build high and strong. some areas could be well served with levees as a last line of defense. the one thing that became apparent was nothing would work forever. thus, whatever strategy was chosen, it needed to have adaptability and maintainability built into the system. even for New Orleans, we could not define a ‘levees only’ strategy that could or would make sense for very long.
4) Levee Policy. Here is where it gets really scary. as you have properly framed it, “who’s that guy at the switch?” During our trail of tears Katrina investigations, we struggled with this key issue. I don’t think we were able to find a workable answer. Only one theme made sense: unity. It was clear no one person or organization had or has responsibility for ‘water security’ – water needs protection too. Bickering in the sandbox for prestige and power was clearly evident. Leadership was sadly lacking. Hubris, arrogance, ignorance, and indolence characterized many of the failures to provide water security. The other clear theme that developed is that water security is a national (and international) challenge with critical local factors that must be addressed in ways that are coherent with the ‘water system’ – piecemeal solutions can not work very long. In the end, we cast the levee policy in a national framework with state and local government, industry, and public components. we called this a water security Technology Development System. This system attempted to integrate public, government, and industry components by developing beliefs, values, feelings, and resource allocations to help ‘keep water friendly’ for current and future generations. Perhaps, this is the ultimate challenge.
Bob Bea
Editilla said
“[Kelly, s]how me the logical fallacies in Ezra Boyd’s paper and I will forgive Len his misunderstanding of critical thinking and drive-by attack rhetoric.”
Len, I’ve decided to take up Editilla’s prompt here. However, I’m not your agent, so if I have misunderstood your position by all means chime in and correct me.
That said, here goes:
Editilla, Len isn’t claiming to see a logical fallacy in the Boyd paper when he says “With all due respect to Boyd’s study I’m skeptical about what could be usefully gleaned (from Louisiana’s standpoint) from an analysis of levee cost and performance, based on other (non-subsiding) parts of the country.” He’s first arguing relevance, not truth. He’s saying those other levees aren’t a good example for us because they aren’t cross basin on a sinking, failing coast. He’s right.
Second, Len is saying the prevailing mindset is levee-centric with heavy on the engineering and light on the botany. Right again.
Finally, he’s concerned that the decision will ultimately be made almost by default by the usual players, which don’t include very many coastal science people. 3 for 3.
If that doesn’t help you, see Carlton’s comment. (He should modify his comment this way to make it a little clearer: ” . . . will be inevitable on the ‘Levees R Us’ track.”
Thanks, Kelly!
Len,
Terrific post. You’re right on target with:
“Two factors that could result in a pendulum shift toward what I think is the most appropriate scenario would be: (1) sticker shock from extremely expensive cost and maintenance estimates of the levee heavy system; and/or (2) effective action (political pressure) by stakeholders, agencies and ngos at the national level.”
Our National NGO friends could still make a difference in the pending great wall of Louisiana, the continued demise of our coast, and the ultimate loss of our coast communities and culture which will be inevitable on the levees are us track. It is very unfortunate that the nationals continue to miss opportunities to truly make a difference here.
Carlton Dufrechou
Kelly, thank you for not including me in your definition of a fanatic. I would like it reiterated that my question for Len regarded his lack of proofreading, and never cited any specifics. I still think Len should use a proofreader, or take a class.
OK, I see your “high level of abstraction..”…
And raise you one “This begs a fundamental chicken and egg question:”.
Show me the logical fallacies in Ezra Boyd’s paper and I will forgive Len his misunderstanding of critical thinking and drive-by attack rhetoric.
“With all due respect to Boyd’s study(*) I’m skeptical about what could be usefully gleaned (from Louisiana’s standpoint) from an analysis of levee cost and performance, based on other (non-subsiding) parts of the country.”
(*)Are we actually having this conversation?
New Orleans Levee Policy
“f you were raised in New Orleans your personal attitude about levees, like tobacco, was probably influenced by your age, your parents and the neighborhood in which you grew up. Long term New Orleans residents understandably share a practical and emotional attachment to levees that goes back generations.
Keep in mind that New Orleans is a very old, one of a kind city located in a unique and in some ways irrational place. Absent levees and pumps, perhaps 50% of New Orleans would be permanently underwater today. That’s part of the mystery, charm and irrational exuberance of the Big Easy. In what other American city would you commonly see bicycle riders multi-tasking with a beer and a cigarette?”
Len’s academic bias hangs here like a torn Freudian slip. I mean, come on.
So we get a “counter-map” exactly like Boyd’s but with better graphics, from a Tulane Geography professor, which aside from leaving out a considerable amount of levees (for example Houma) actually serves to reinforce the grad student’s thesis, rather than minimize the levees.org in taking on this task –fresh out of the gate, in the opening half of this post –before he has even read the easily accessible Study.
That smacks of Bourgeois Nievete at the very least to me, if not a certain bit of Academic Imperialism.
I mean, what’s the point of gathering any data if there is no point in gathering any data?
To be or not to be…
Thank you
HPS is “Hurricane Protection System.” For a while there was a “Greater New Orleans Hurricane Risk Reduction System” or some such nonsense. One of the iterations had “Storm Damage” in there somewhere.
Ever wonder why airplanes have “anti-skid” braking systems but cars only have “anti-lock” brakes? You guessed it – lawyers. “Protection” became “Risk Reduction.”
Meanwhile, the medical history and children’s occupations of a blogger should be off limits.
Finally, Len is thinking here about the larger questions at a high level of abstraction. I believe that’s the best place to start any fresh analysis. One definition of a fanatic (no one here is being called that, including Editilla) is someone who redoubles the effort after losing sight of the objective. Len sees three possible “ultimate outcomes” and fears, legitimately, that a poor choice will be made by default in an information deficit. Yup.
Whole lotta acronyms goin on.
OCS used to mean ‘Officer Candidate School.’
HPS might mean ‘History Pursues Stupid.’
O&G might mean ‘Ollie and Garfunkle.’
E&P might mean ‘Education and Procrastination.’
Maybe the Dutch will make an offer on Nawlins…….
Hopefully.
HH-
For once I agree with you. I loath acronyms, especially when they’re undefined. I’m not even sure about one of the acronyms.
My glossary
OSP: offshore production (of oil and gas)
O&G: oil and gas
E&P: exploration and production
HPS: hazard protection system? hydraulic pump system?
RE OCS federal revenue: The justification for a HPS is to mitigate damage to the interior property and infrastructure. The value of that property and infrastructure is tied to the regional resources and economy. The demand for O&G sets the value of O&G infrastructure and local property which supports E&P, NOT the fed need for tax revenue. The US govt is entitled to the OCS revenue; LA is entitled to property taxes (and fees on O&G companies for digging/maintaining canals–but that’s another issue). Oh but wait, we don’t want to pay property taxes and we don’t want to put taxes on O&G companies to pay for our HPS. Go ask the Dutch if they can get the Italians to pay for their levees.
Len,
I specifically and strictly did not mention gender or volunteer any other references to your daughter in my suggestions that you practice proofreading in your posts, so you might try it in your comments as well.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, just not their own facts.
Editilla-
1) Ezra Boyd’s article is NOT the primary theme of this post but I have added a link to his article (see above) and invited him to write a guest post.
2) I’m a blogger, not a journalist. I don’t report straight news; I express opinions. I write about coastal issues for which I have many years of experience and great passion. I don’t do this for money so I’m free to say what I choose.
3) I don’t need you to remind me that my daughter is a fine journalist (about to enter grad school to study urban planning). She and I share story ideas and critique our respective articles all the time.
**** (In fairness to the author haven’t seen the study yet.)
No, you indeed don’t do the journalism thingy.
Guess you can’t be accused of misreading here then.
Please go read Mr Boyd’s report, and Levees.org’s statement of purpose in commissioning this report, as stated (and easily accessed) on their website and reported in appx 30 news outlets across the country from Huffington Post to Homeland Security Newswire.
In short, Len, do your homework and then get back to us.
Another thing Journalists definitely don’t do is the fallacy of equivalency, most banally illustrated in your tabloid academia use of ‘quotes’ for this ‘camp’ or that ‘camp’ ‘some camps’ ‘these people’ ‘those people’ in your opening regarding this study commissioned by levees.org.
Are you trying to say they runnin’wit da’bad crowd, Len?
Names, Len. Statements. Who What When Where and How are these ‘people’ connected to Ezra Boyds Study of the relationship of populations, incomes, floodplains and levees?
The reason this sticks is because I challenge any of your readers to go check out the levees.org site and see where they state they are ‘pro-levee building’ or ‘anti-levee building’ . I also challenge your readers to go and read this report. It is a very easy site to navigate, Len.
You have a fine journalist in your family, whose work I often admire. Soooo why can’t you run some of your post by them for proof-reading? I do it for my friends all the time. But I always tell them: “Who’s on First, What’s on Second and I don’t know is on Third.”
Landscape architects are known to visualize the future in the plans they prepare.
It does not take too much imagination to see the future New Orleans as an island in the Gulf of Mexico connected by a land bridge (earthen causeway) into and out of the city. This city form will be similar to the early history of Boston where a land bridge connected Boston to the higher ground beyond the back bay. Today as you may know, most of that City appears to be inland. But in fact, it has pushed itself into the sea.
What is the history lesson here?
Mankind believes they have the power, (equipment, skill, design talent and money) to rebuild nature in their image in spite of what nature is suggesting. A small town on a natural levee in 1700 is one thing; a large American city on that same ground in 2050 is incredible.
To visualize New Orleans as an island in the sea protected by levees is very easy to do. This island will be at the mercy of the wind, rain, waves and geologic movement. Is this a place people will choose to live?
That is a question hard to visualize, even by a landscape architect.
“But a BASE analysis of local financial capacity is critical to the long-term “economic sustainability” of any flood protection project. Federal support for flood protection is NOT economically sustainable.”
Your BASE analysis must begin with the over $150 billion dollars in direct cash to the Federal coffers from OCS oil and gas royalties. $150 billion dollars to Feds, while nothing goes to the locals.
There is an obvious way to at least gauge if the economic loss mitigation really outways the construction/maintenance costs for a 1% return flood protection levee (or any other level of protection): are those within the protection system willing to pay for it. Of course “external” costs (e.g. long term ecosystem damage) are additional and need to be considered. But a BASE analysis of local financial capacity is critical to the long-term “economic sustainability” of any flood protection project. Federal support for flood protection is NOT economically sustainable. It is NOT in their genetic makeup for Congress and the Corps to sustain financial support for local flood protection, especially complex systems that require constant/expensive TLC. All of the post-Katrina effort for the NO HPS is a short-term mirage–in the long term the Congress and the Corps will abandon the system and it will fail again if not sustained by the local citizens. Such levee systems are just another example of the TBTF trap.
len: as always, a good thought piece
interesting factoid fr FEMA report on levees: more than 50% of nations population relies on levees….
of course, not just coastal (like sacremento, SoLA) but also interior US
maybe it is time for a ‘levee coalition’?
Dear Len,
Happy New Year. I hope this is a good one for you.
You raise some very important questions. While the role of a reporter is to ask the five questionsI believe an equally important point is for Louisiana residents to Organize, get involved and to take direct action to bring about some positive changes in coastal Louisiana.
So is there a good active group trying to bring about positive and much needed changes?If not can we help to develop this effort?
Sincerely yours,
Willie Fontenot